Monetary policy easing, coupled with the relaxation of lending rules and greater election-driven fiscal spending in the first quarter of 2019, will provide some support to growth during the first half of 2019-20 fiscal
"The Monetary Policy Committee recognises that there is monetary policy space for future action. However, given the evolving growth-inflation dynamics, the MPC felt it appropriate to take a pause at this juncture," the RBI said in its fifth bi-monthly monetary policy for this fiscal.
The fourth consecutive rate cut is expected to lower equated monthly instalments (EMIs) for home and auto buyers, and borrowing cost for corporate.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday cut short-term lending rate by 0.25 per cent.
The Reserve Bank on Tuesday cautioned that continued uncertainty over monsoon could stoke food inflation, but expressed the hope that government policies will improve supplies in the coming months.
At least a 25 basis points hike can be expected on the October 5 policy
The broader NSE Nifty too slipped by 9.50 points, or 0.09 per cent, to end at 10,118.25
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said the decision to tweak policy rates was not in his hand as he himself is driven by the situation on the ground. In April, the Reserve Bank in a surprise move hit the pause button and decided to keep the key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent. Prior to it, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was on a rate hiking spree, raising the repo rate by 250 basis points since May 2022.
Striking a different note from its peers, US brokerage Bank of America Securities has maintained that the Reserve Bank will leave rates unchanged next week, recognising growth-focused and capex-driven fiscal expansion, which though poses huge price pressure and interest rate risks later. The RBI's rate setting panel Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will begin its deliberations next Monday and announce the policy moves on Wednesday (February 9) in the backdrop of a massive spike in bond yields post the Budget. Almost all major central banks are in the process of hiking rates to tame inflation.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to 6.44 per cent in February, mainly on account of a slight easing in prices of food and fuel items though it remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent for the second month in a row. As per the government data released on Monday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation was at 6.52 per cent in January and 6.07 per cent in February 2022. The retail inflation rate for the food basket worked out to be 5.95 per cent in February, marginally lower than 6 per cent in January.
Jio Finance, a wholly owned subsidiary of Jio Financial Services, is likely to delay its maiden bond issue of Rs 3,000 crore, originally scheduled for this month. The decision comes amid expectations of softening yields in April because the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy committee (MPC) is widely expected to cut the policy repo rate by another 25 basis points, sources said.
India Ratings on Thursday said that any broad-based or strong recovery in corporate capital expenditure was unlikely in the upcoming financial year 2026 (FY26) due to uncertainty of domestic and external demand. The uncertainty is adversely affecting the overall corporate sector capex. Interest rates on credit are not the primary deterrent to decisions about capital expenditure, said Soumyajit Niyogi, director, core analytical group, Ind-Ra, in a webinar on the credit market outlook.
It would also be the last policy of Rajan
The three day MPC meeting began on Monday and the decision will be announced on Wednesday by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
'Other sectors that manage the savings pools of Indians are giving tough competition to life insurance companies.'
At the same time, banking sources close to the development said the central bank could raise its growth target from 5-6 per cent to 6.5 per cent to accommodate the impact of an improving monsoon and the growth impetus provided through various fiscal and monetary stimulus packages earlier in the year. The cautious outlook on interest rates is primarily to accommodate rising inflationary expectations in the economy.
After delaying liberalisation for foreign banks by over a year due to global financial meltdown, the Reserve Bank on Tuesday decided to review its position by September this year in the wake of improving conditions worldwide.
'A possible post-election growth momentum may be lost.'
Market participants do not expect any immediate impact on the rupee from the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) a "comprehensive" master direction aimed at strengthening the framework for hedging foreign exchange risks. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, in his monetary policy statement, revealed that the central bank is poised to issue a master direction to consolidate guidelines for all types of forex transactions. But this development, according to market players, is more of a directional guidance than a mandatory directive.
On the back of sound macroeconomic policies and softer commodity prices, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures, said the Reserve Bank's annual report released on Tuesday. It, however, added that slowing global growth, protracted geopolitical tensions and a possible upsurge in financial market volatility following new stress events in the global financial system could pose downside risks to growth. "On the back of sound macroeconomic policies, softer commodity prices, a robust financial sector, a healthy corporate sector, continued fiscal policy thrust on quality of government expenditure, and new growth opportunities stemming from global realignment of supply chains, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures," it said.
The government is likely to name a successor to Rajan sometime this month
As the policy rate has seen a steady increase since May 2022, the percentage of loans offered at interest rates below 8 per cent have declined sharply, dropping from 53 per cent in March 2022 to 18 per cent by June 2023, according to a report by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The share of bank loans with interest rates of 10 per cent or higher rose from 22 per cent to 34 per cent during this period, reflecting the impact of a 250 basis point (bps) hike in the policy repo rate by the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee. In response to the rise in repo rate, 32 domestic banks have made corresponding upward revisions to their repo-linked external benchmark-based lending rates (EBLRs), aligning them with the magnitude of the rate hike.
Ahead of the monetary policy review, RBI governor D Subbarao is expected to meet Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and finance minister Pranab Mukherjee on October 23.
JSW Steel was the biggest gainer on the Sensex chart, rising 2.68 per cent, followed by Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Titan, ITC, Tech Mahindra, NTPC, Reliance Industries and Larsen & Toubro. In contrast, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, Asian Paints and Axis Bank were major laggards.
Tata Steel was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 4 per cent, followed by Infosys, Bajaj Finance, TCS, HCL Tech, ICICI Bank and Tech Mahindra. On the other hand, Bharti Airtel, M&M, L&T and Axis Bank were among the laggards.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday cut India's GDP growth projections to 6.5 per cent for the next fiscal as it expects that economies in the APAC region will feel the strain of rising US tariffs and pushback on globalisation. In its Economic Outlook for Asia-Pacific (APAC), S&P said despite these external strains, it expects domestic demand momentum to remain solid in most emerging-market economies.
The RBI expects change, presumably commencing in the next Budget, but must hold its current view until this actually happens.
In trade negotiations, as in chess, sometimes you need to accept a temporary disadvantage to secure a better long-term position, points out Sonal Varma, chief economist (India and Asia ex-Japan) at Nomura.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday raised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.9 per cent for current fiscal year, from 6.5 per cent earlier, citing strong June quarter growth and domestic consumption-led demand.
Urjit Patel panel wanted all members to be appointed by RBI
Arun Jaitley on Sunday said monetary policy plays an important role in stimulating growth.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday did a four-day variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) auction to reduce liquidity in the banking system as the overnight money market rates fell below the repo rate, said market participants. The repo rate is 6.50 per cent. Banks parked Rs 18,750 crore at the auction against a notified amount of Rs 50,000 crore at a weighted average rate of 6.49 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will launch the Unified Lending Interface (ULI) nationwide in due course, aiming to transform India's lending sector, similar to how the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) revolutionised the payments ecosystem, Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Monday.
Market participants must appreciate that staying cautious is a virtue for central bankers and should not expect a sudden reversal in the formal monetary policy stance.
With inflation under control, the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC's) job is to support growth because the economy had recovered well from the lows in the initial months of the pandemic, according to the panel's members, who met in the first week of this month. The minutes of the meeting show the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor in his statement said: "Given the sharp moderation in inflation along with a stable near-term outlook, monetary policy needs to continue with the accommodative stance to ensure that the recovery gains greater traction and becomes broad-based." Ashima Goyal, external member of the MPC, said: "The current macroeconomic configuration and its expected future evolution imply there is space for the MPC to continue to support the revival of the economy with inflation remaining in the target band."
Inflation breached the upper end of the RBI's comfort level of 4 per cent plus-minus two percentage points.
The RBI on Thursday said banks' gross NPA ratio has fallen to a sever-year low of 5 per cent and the banking system remains sound and well-capitalised. In the 26th issue of the Financial Stability Report (FSR), the RBI also said the global economy is facing formidable headwinds with recessionary risks looming large. The interplay of multiple shocks has resulted in tightened financial conditions and heightened volatility in financial markets, it pointed out.
Inflation target remains 5% for January 2017.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said the government and the central bank are in discussion with South Asian countries to have cross-border trade in rupee. He also said the central bank digital currency (CBDC) is in trial phase and the RBI is moving very carefully and cautiously on digital rupee launch. After the successful launch of the wholesale pilot, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on December 1, last year, began its retail CBDC pilot project.
The Reserve Bank will go for a "dovish pause" at Wednesday's policy review announcement amid developments such as a rise in inflation, government maintaining the inflation target band and a likely impact on growth due to local lockdowns on rising COVID-19 infections, analysts said on Monday. Economists at American brokerage Bofa Securities said price stability, growth and financial stability will become the prime focus areas for the central bank going forward. "The RBI MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) should deliver another dovish pause on Wednesday," it said. The policy announcement, the first for the fiscal, will come days after the government maintained the RBI's target to ensure inflation to be within 2-6 per cent band for five more years.
